Making Sense of the Census: What Does Decline Mean?

When the 2010 U.S. Census numbers were released early this week, . The city had 2,205 fewer people than it did in 2000, dropping from 22,105 to 19,900.

At the state level, , the only state in the union to drop. At the county level, Oakland County grew by about 0.7 percent. The cities around Ferndale all lost, from only 1.6 percent in Oak Park to 13.3 percent in Hazel Park.

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"Every inner-ring suburb has lost population," Ferndale Councilwoman Melanie Piana said. "This is a trend, but these inner-ring suburbs need to understand why this is happening." (Inner-ring suburbs tend to be a large city's first suburbs.)

Piana said further study of the census data is needed.

"It's not surprising at all. (Ferndale) was estimated to lose 10 percent (of its population), and that is what (it) did," Oakland County Commissioner Craig Covey said.

"Really, it's a factor of small families," he said. "Saying people are leaving the city is not accurate."

Covey said Ferndale has changed through the decades from a town with Irish Catholic families and five to seven people in a household to a city of younger, single, gay and lesbian residents in households of one or two people. "These houses aren't filled like the used to be," he said.

Regardless of the reasons why there are fewer people in Ferndale, the loss of each of those 2,205 residents costs something.

"It just piles on. It's one more hit," Ferndale City Manager Mark Wollenweber said. "Every person you lose is a hit on federal and state programs in terms of dollars."

Wollenweber added that the hit on dollars comes pretty quickly, too. "If it doesn't affect final revenue-sharing this year, (the state) will go back and readjust and take money out."

Population affects statutory and constitutional revenue-sharing.Constitutional revenue sharing is required by law to be provided to cities. Statutory is not required by law and at one time helped to level the playing field between wealthy communities and less wealthy communities. For example, Birmingham received less than $300,000 in statutory revenue sharing last year whereas Ferndale received $1.2 million.

Early this month, Gov. Rick Snyder proposed cutting statutory spending completely (about $1.2 million) to balance Michigan's $1.4 billion projected shortfall. However, a hit on population will affect the constitutional revenue-sharing the city is expected to receive (about $1.4 million last year).

Yet Wollenweber said the city has been expecting this decrease in population. In fact, he said, city officials were calculating for an even smaller population. "(Finance Director) Jaynmarie (Hubanks) was projecting for 19,500, but we got 19,900," he said.

This isn't Wollenweber's first census. After more than three decades of city manager or administrator work, census numbers aren't new to him.

"A declining population used to mean something different. It meant there was something wrong with you. You were a distressed place," Wollenweber said. "But now it might just mean smaller families as a trend. There are lot of factors, but decline (in population) isn't the same indicator of a stressed community as it was previously."

The census numbers for family sizes and household sizes are yet to be released.

"My job is to make the city the best place I can for the (19,900) people here now," said Ferndale Mayor Dave Coulter.

The 2010 census numbers throughout the nation, the state and the city show a growth in minority groups. The nation had huge gains in Hispanics or Latino (43 percent increase), Asian (43.3 percent increase) and black or African-American (12.3 percent).

In Ferndale, the black or African-American population grew 151 percent.

"The growth in America happened in racially diverse and ethnic populations," Coulter said. "In Ferndale, (a) 150 percent (growth) in the African-American population is significant. It speaks to the fact that our future growth ... depends on our ability to provide a diverse and inclusive environment in our city."